June 2024 – May 2025 · 10 reseller partners · 104 partner-sourced opportunities · Prepared for the VP of Channel Sales
Prepared by Dico Angelo · Methodology: SUMIFS/pivot aggregation on the raw opportunity ledger; win rate computed on closed deals only (Won ÷ [Won+Lost]); tier attainment measured as won new-business ARR per quarter against the Tier Definitions thresholds.
How each tier performs on win rate, average ACV, and total ARR closed — and where the pattern breaks.
Tier
Opps
Won / Lost / Open
Win rate
Avg ACV (won)
Total ARR closed
% of ARR
Gold
48
35 / 9 / 4
80%
$31,341
$1,096,944
81.0%
Silver
24
13 / 8 / 3
62%
$10,746
$139,692
10.3%
Bronze
32
16 / 6 / 10
73%
$7,375
$117,996
8.7%
All tiers
104
64 / 23 / 17
74%
$21,166
$1,354,632
100%
The anomaly — the "Silver squeeze": Silver has the lowest win rate of any tier (62%), below even Bronze (73%). ACV scales cleanly with tier ($31K → $11K → $7K) and Gold drives 81% of all ARR, both expected. But the middle tier converting worse than the bottom tier is the surprise — Silver partners are getting Gold-scale deal complexity with Bronze-scale support (no dedicated rep), and losing deals they should win.
2Partner-Level Standouts & Tier Risk
Over- and under-performers relative to tier, and the partners whose tier standing is about to move.
Partner
Tier
Win rate
Won ARR (12mo)
Q1'25 (last full qtr)
Trajectory
Apex Security Solutions
Gold
86%
$382,896
$88,524
▲ accelerating
Triton Systems Group
Gold
72%
$391,896
$80,544
▲ steady leader
Meridian Tech Partners
Gold
83%
$322,152
$71,292
▲ high ACV
Crestview Integration
Silver
67%
$52,116
$0
⚠ note vs. reality gap
BlueSky Networks
Silver
57%
$47,664
$16,896
◆ solid, low win rate
Keystone Security Inc.
Silver
62%
$39,912
$6,480
▼ downgrade risk
Pinnacle AV & Security
Bronze
71%
$38,292
$8,556
▲ near Silver
Clearview Systems
Bronze
67%
$31,488
$6,228
steady
TrueNorth IT Services
Bronze
80%
$31,008
$8,376
▲ efficient
Horizon Tech Resellers
Bronze
75%
$17,208
$14,712
◆ pipeline unconverted
Q1'25 attainment vs. tier floor — last full quarter; bars below the 100% line are trending toward downgrade
At risk — downgrade (act this quarter)
Keystone Security (Silver → Bronze)
Three straight quarters of decline in won new-business ARR: $22.2K (Q3'24) → $11.2K (Q4'24) → $6.5K (Q1'25), with nothing closed in the partial Q2'25. Last full quarter fell below the $10K Silver floor. Partner note ("reliable but inconsistent pipeline") corroborates. Left alone, Keystone drops to Bronze next tier review — losing MDF and its 15% deal-reg discount, which typically accelerates the decline.
Expectation gap — validate before the QBR
Crestview Integration (Silver, flagged "on track for Gold")
The partner reference note says "on track for Gold Q3 2025," but the data disagrees: Crestview won $0 in Q1'25 and averages ~$13K/quarter — well short of Gold's $25K/quarter threshold. This is an internal-narrative-vs.-data mismatch worth flagging, so the VP isn't forecasting a promotion the numbers don't support.
3Pipeline Health
$242K of open ARR across 17 opportunities — but the shape of it carries two concentration risks.
Open ARR by stage
Stage
Opps
ARR
Discovery
7
$157,296
Negotiation
7
$60,576
Demo Scheduled
2
$16,440
Proposal Sent
1
$7,656
Concentration flags
Early-stage heavy: 65% of open ARR ($157K) sits in Discovery — the lowest-probability stage. Only $61K (25%) is in Negotiation. Weighted for stage, realistic near-term ARR is well under half the headline.
Geographic concentration:US Northeast ($82.8K) + Western Canada ($58.9K) = 59% of open pipeline in two regions — both anchored by single Gold partners (Meridian, Triton).
Single-deal risk: Meridian's $82.8K open (US Northeast) is 34% of the entire pipeline resting on one partner's deals.
Horizon (Bronze): 5 of its 9 opps are open ($25.3K) yet unconverted — pipeline is building but stalling; "low engagement" note suggests an enablement gap.
4Trend Over Time
Is the channel gaining or losing momentum? ARR looks healthy — but efficiency is quietly slipping.
Quarter
Won ARR
Won deals
Win rate
Momentum
2024-Q2 (Jun only)
$79,428
5
83%
partial qtr
2024-Q3
$432,084
19
86%
peak
2024-Q4
$278,172
14
74%
▼ WR softening
2025-Q1
$301,608
16
73%
flat
2025-Q2 (Apr–May)
$263,340
10
56%
partial qtr
Won ARR & win rate by quarter — ARR holds while win rate slides; partial quarters shown faded
The real signal is win-rate erosion, not ARR. Booked ARR stays healthy ($278K–$302K across full quarters), so a revenue dashboard would show "all green." But win rate has fallen 86% → 74% → 73% → 56% — the channel is working harder to close the same dollars. That's a leading indicator of softening momentum that trails ARR by a quarter or two. Caveat: Q2'24 (June only) and Q2'25 (Apr–May only) are partial windows and are excluded from the trend read.
5Use of AI in This Analysis
Would an AI tool speed up or improve this work over time?
Yes — as a force-multiplier on the repeatable, structural layer, with a human owning the judgment layer. AI accelerates data cleaning, pivot/aggregation generation, first-pass anomaly detection (e.g. surfacing the Silver win-rate inversion), and drafting the narrative. The value compounds over time: once the tier logic, partial-quarter handling, and output template are encoded as a prompt/pipeline, every future quarter is a re-run, not a rebuild — turning a 2-hour analysis into a 10-minute refresh.
Where I keep a human in the loop: methodology decisions (how to treat partial quarters, whether tier is rolling or point-in-time) and any partner-facing conclusion. A wrong downgrade call — like acting on a naive read of Keystone without checking pipeline context — damages a real partner relationship. So: AI for speed and coverage, human for the decision and the tone.
BRecommendations — Actionable in 30–60 Days
Three moves the Channel team can execute this quarter, ordered by impact.
Recommendation 1 · Highest leverage
Close the Silver win-rate gap with a shared-SE motion
Problem
Silver converts at 62% vs Bronze's 73% and Gold's 80% — the middle tier is leaking winnable deals. Silver gets no dedicated rep today (Gold-only benefit), yet handles mid-complexity deals.
Action
Pilot a pooled/fractional SE + rep touch for Silver on any deal >$10K ACV; add a light deal-review gate at Proposal stage.
Impact
Lifting Silver to Bronze-parity (73%) on its closed volume is ~2 extra wins/quarter ≈ $30–45K incremental ARR/yr, before any halo on retention.
Validate
The dataset has no loss-reason field — confirm the losses are support-driven (not price/product) before committing headcount.
Recommendation 2 · Retention
Intervene on Keystone before the quarter-end tier review
Problem
Keystone (Silver) has declined 3 quarters straight and is below the $10K floor — a silent downgrade is queued. There's no mid-quarter alert to catch it.
Action
Trigger a QBR + targeted MDF/co-marketing push now; give the rep a "path back to Silver" plan with the exact ARR gap and deadline.
Impact
Retains a Silver partner and its benefits; avoids the downgrade→demotivation→churn spiral that removing MDF and the 15% discount tends to accelerate.
Validate
Confirm whether tier is measured on a rolling trailing quarter vs. calendar quarter — it changes how many days are left to act.
Recommendation 3 · Pipeline conversion
Unstick the Discovery-stage backlog
Problem
65% of open ARR ($157K) is stuck in Discovery, the lowest-probability stage — inflating the pipeline while true near-term ARR is far lower.
Action
Set a stage-aging SLA (auto-flag Discovery deals aging past N days) and SE-assist the top 3 by value, starting with Meridian's $82.8K.
Impact
Converting even 30% of Discovery ARR ≈ $47K pulled forward, and a cleaner, stage-weighted forecast the VP can trust.
Validate
No opportunity-created date in the data — stage-aging needs that field wired from Salesforce to compute precisely.
Replacing the manual Salesforce-reports + Google-Sheets + email patchwork with a mid-quarter early-warning system.
1 · Definition — what "at risk of downgrade" means
A partner is At-Risk when their quarter-to-date won new-business ARR, projected to end of quarter at current run-rate, falls below their tier floor — or when they post two consecutive quarters of >25% QoQ decline. Three states drive everything downstream:
Healthy
≥ 100% of floor
Projected to hold or exceed tier threshold.
Watch
70–99% of floor
Pace-to-date trailing; recoverable with action.
At-Risk
< 70% of floor
Projected downgrade; auto-escalate to rep.
2 · Where the data lives & how it's pulled
Salesforce = system of record for closed/won ARR, stage, close date, partner, region. MindMatrix PRM for deal registrations (leading indicator).
A nightly SOQL/Reports export lands both into one flat partner_performance table (BigQuery, or a governed Google Sheet for a v1) — a single source of truth, no more email updates.
3 · How the alert is automated
Pull
Nightly sync
Scheduled Salesforce Flow or Apps Script / Python cron pulls QTD won ARR per partner.
Compute
Attainment + projection
QTD ÷ floor, then linear run-rate to quarter-end → assigns Healthy / Watch / At-Risk.
Alert
Push on threshold cross
Slack alert to #channel-ops + auto-created Salesforce task on the partner's rep.
Surface
Live dashboard
A single tile per partner, RAG-colored — the manual sheet becomes a self-updating view.
Lightweight v1 I can stand up quickly: a Google Sheet fed by the SF export, with attainment = SUMIFS(wonARR, partner, thisQuarter) / tierFloor, a status via nested IF, and a time-driven Apps Script trigger that fires an email/Slack when a partner crosses <70% with 3+ weeks left in the quarter.
I've built this exact pattern in production — it's the core of my Cloud Alliances work at Contentsquare. On the Global Cloud Alliances team I owned the partner-ops systems this question describes:
PRM ↔ CRM deal-registration sync — I know MindMatrix from the buyer's seat. Suger and Solink's MindMatrix are the same class of partner/co-sell PRM. At Contentsquare I ran the platform evaluation that selected Suger over MindMatrix — so I've assessed Solink's exact tool directly — then operated the Suger ↔ Salesforce deal-registration two-way sync in production: partner registers a co-sell opp (against AWS Partner Central / ACE) → it syncs to Salesforce → stages map back → ACV/TCV and close-won propagate, partner-owned deals flagged. I've both evaluated your PRM and run its direct equivalent day-to-day.
Score-then-alert engine — in the "Cloud Intelligence" workstream I built pipeline-scoring / propensity frameworks and executive dashboards off that CRM data — exactly the compute-a-status-then-surface-it pattern a tier-downgrade alert needs.
Partner health, generalized — I ran a weighted Partner Health Scoring Matrix (~11 dimensions: mutual pipeline, account mapping, joint value prop, enablement, co-marketing, KPIs) into a single RAG score, plus per-partner Mutual Success Plans. Tier-downgrade is one automated signal inside that broader model.
Stack fluency — hands-on admin of Salesforce, Suger, Reveal (account mapping / co-sell overlays) and AWS Partner Central (ACE) — the CRM-plus-PRM-plus-cloud-marketplace world this role lives in.
For Solink this isn't a build from zero — it's re-pointing systems I've already run: a working tier-attainment prototype for the Channel team inside a week, full weighted health scoring soon after.
4 · How the change gets communicated
Internal first: the rep gets the auto-task + Slack ping and owns the outreach — no partner ever hears "downgrade" from a system.
Partner-facing: a structured "path back to tier" note — the exact ARR gap, days remaining, and the specific MDF/co-marketing levers to close it — framed as help, not penalty.
Governance: a downgrade is only finalized at the scheduled tier review, giving partners a fair, transparent window to respond.